Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#91
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.1#252
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 28.4% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.6% 20.3% 6.0%
Average Seed 10.3 9.4 10.8
.500 or above 76.1% 91.7% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 84.3% 68.4%
Conference Champion 5.6% 9.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 1.9%
First Four3.4% 6.3% 2.7%
First Round13.0% 24.9% 10.2%
Second Round5.4% 12.3% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 3.8% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 2.00.2 - 2.0
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.70.7 - 3.6
Quad 21.8 - 2.92.5 - 6.6
Quad 34.8 - 3.37.3 - 9.8
Quad 410.1 - 1.817.4 - 11.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2018 28   @ TCU L 70-77 19%    
  Nov 22, 2018 62   Northwestern L 65-68 38%    
  Nov 23, 2018 23   Miami (FL) L 66-74 25%    
  Nov 25, 2018 201   Hawaii W 72-64 76%    
  Nov 28, 2018 168   Pacific W 72-66 77%    
  Dec 01, 2018 317   Cal Poly W 76-61 94%    
  Dec 05, 2018 147   Weber St. W 72-68 73%    
  Dec 08, 2018 189   Long Beach St. W 78-71 80%    
  Dec 19, 2018 198   California W 73-66 81%    
  Dec 22, 2018 285   Tennessee Martin W 72-60 90%    
  Dec 29, 2018 152   Utah Valley W 72-67 74%    
  Jan 02, 2019 321   @ San Jose St. W 74-59 85%    
  Jan 05, 2019 180   Colorado St. W 75-69 78%    
  Jan 09, 2019 144   @ Utah St. W 72-68 53%    
  Jan 12, 2019 7   Nevada L 70-81 24%    
  Jan 19, 2019 95   @ Boise St. W 70-69 41%    
  Jan 22, 2019 45   San Diego St. L 67-72 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 180   @ Colorado St. W 75-69 60%    
  Jan 30, 2019 173   @ Wyoming W 78-72 59%    
  Feb 02, 2019 92   New Mexico W 76-75 60%    
  Feb 05, 2019 144   Utah St. W 72-68 72%    
  Feb 09, 2019 139   @ UNLV W 77-74 51%    
  Feb 13, 2019 95   Boise St. W 70-69 60%    
  Feb 16, 2019 92   @ New Mexico W 76-75 40%    
  Feb 20, 2019 212   Air Force W 72-64 82%    
  Feb 23, 2019 7   @ Nevada L 70-81 12%    
  Feb 27, 2019 173   Wyoming W 78-72 77%    
  Mar 06, 2019 45   @ San Diego St. L 67-72 27%    
  Mar 09, 2019 321   San Jose St. W 74-59 93%    
Projected Record 17.4 - 11.6 10.2 - 7.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 4.8 2.1 0.4 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.8 6.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.3 6.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.6 5.7 2.4 0.3 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.5 1.7 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.4 7.4 9.2 11.4 12.7 12.8 11.4 9.4 6.8 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 78.5% 1.5    0.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 49.2% 2.1    1.1 0.9 0.1
14-4 12.7% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 97.4% 46.7% 50.7% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.1%
16-2 1.9% 87.2% 25.7% 61.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 82.7%
15-3 4.3% 68.6% 20.7% 47.9% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 60.4%
14-4 6.8% 45.2% 15.1% 30.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 35.4%
13-5 9.4% 27.6% 11.8% 15.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.8 17.9%
12-6 11.4% 15.1% 9.0% 6.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 6.8%
11-7 12.8% 7.0% 5.8% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.9 1.2%
10-8 12.7% 4.7% 4.4% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.3%
9-9 11.4% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.0%
8-10 9.2% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
6-12 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.7% 6.7% 8.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.7 3.5 2.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 85.3 8.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 9.1 90.9